JPMorgan and Citi have revised their forecasts and now expect the Federal Reserve to implement a series of rate cuts starting in September 2024. Both banks anticipate a total reduction of 125 basis points by the end of the year. This comes in response to recent economic data indicating a slowdown, with inflation easing and unemployment rates showing signs of an upward trend.
The probability of a 50 basis point cut in September was previously low, estimated at just 11%. However, the latest economic indicators, including a cooling labor market and weaker service-sector performance, have prompted a significant shift in expectations. According to Citi, the Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates by 50 basis points in both September and November, followed by a 25 basis point cut in December. JPMorgan echoes this sentiment, citing the need to address the economic slowdown and stimulate growth.
Both banks emphasize that the Federal Reserve’s decision will be influenced by the latest economic data, with potential adjustments based on evolving economic conditions. The projected rate cuts aim to mitigate the impact of slowing economic growth and help stabilize the market.
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