JPMorgan Chase has observed a significant shift in market sentiment, with increasing odds of a Donald Trump victory in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election.

According to recent market data, betting odds now place Trump’s re-election chances at 56%, and the probability of a Republican-controlled Senate has surpassed 80%.

JPMorgan, $JPM, has said that the markets are pricing in a Donald Trump election win.

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This uptick in expectations has been reflected in financial markets, with stronger U.S. equities, particularly in the banking sector, a strengthening U.S. dollar, and tighter credit spreads over the past two weeks.

Despite the recent rise in market activity tied to a potential Trump victory, JPMorgan’s strategists caution that the current market movements have yet to fully match the scale of the “Trump trade” from 2016.

This previous market phenomenon saw significant outperformance in U.S. equities, stronger Treasury yields, and tighter credit spreads.

However, the strategists suggest that the market is still some way from fully pricing in the expected impact of a Republican sweep​

The implications of a Republican victory could extend beyond just market performance. JPMorgan notes that industries such as gold and Bitcoin may benefit from the so-called “debasement trade,” driven by expected fiscal expansion and tariffs under a Trump-led administration​.

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