Polymarket, a decentralized prediction platform, currently indicates a 50% probability of a U.S. recession in 2025, reflecting market uncertainty amid conflicting economic signals.

This follows a recent peak of 66% in recession odds, which declined after President Trump’s announcement to postpone certain tariffs.

The Trump administration maintains a stance of economic optimism. National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett stated there is “100% not” a chance of a recession in 2025, attributing confidence to anticipated trade deals resulting from the administration’s tariff policies.

Conversely, financial analysts and commentators on platforms like “FinTwit” express concerns about a potential recession, citing factors such as market volatility and trade tensions. This divergence in perspectives underscores the prevailing uncertainty in economic forecasts.​

Economic indicators present a mixed picture. The International Monetary Fund has raised the U.S. recession probability to 37% and adjusted the 2025 growth forecast to 1.8%, citing trade policy impacts. Additionally, recent stock market rallies suggest investor optimism, yet underlying concerns about inflation and supply chain disruptions persist. ​

While official statements project confidence in economic stability, market-based predictions and financial analysts highlight significant risks, reflecting a complex and uncertain economic landscape.​