The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, commonly called the CLARITY Act, is a broad cryptocurrency market-structure bill designed to divide regulatory authority between the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

The legislation would generally give the CFTC greater authority over qualifying digital commodities and spot-market intermediaries, while the SEC would continue regulating digital assets that meet the legal definition of securities.

The bill is considerably further along than most legislation introduced in Congress.

The House approved its version with bipartisan support in 2025, while the Senate Banking Committee advanced its own version in 2026, placing the legislation on the Senate Legislative Calendar for potential consideration by the full Senate.

Historically, the odds of any bill becoming law are extremely low. A large-scale analysis of nearly 70,000 bills introduced in Congress found that only about 3.6% ultimately became law.

However, CLARITY has already cleared several major legislative hurdles that most bills never reach, making it inappropriate to compare it with the average congressional proposal.

The largest challenge remains the U.S. Senate. Because most legislation effectively requires 60 votes to overcome a filibuster, Republicans must attract Democratic support before the bill can move toward final passage. Even if approved by the Senate, both chambers must still agree on identical legislative language before it can be sent to the President for signature.

Political negotiations surrounding ethics rules, decentralized finance (DeFi), stablecoins and regulatory authority continue to shape the bill’s prospects. While recent bipartisan negotiations have improved sentiment surrounding the legislation, several policy disagreements remain unresolved and could delay a final vote.

The best historical comparison is the FIT21 Act, which passed the House with bipartisan support in 2024 but failed to become law before that Congress adjourned. On the other hand, the GENIUS Act successfully advanced through both chambers and was signed into law, demonstrating that major cryptocurrency legislation can receive bipartisan congressional approval under the right conditions.

Using those two major legislative examples as a simple historical comparison produces a baseline probability of approximately 50% after applying Laplace smoothing to avoid overconfidence from such a small sample.

That estimate is then adjusted downward to account for Senate procedural hurdles, limited legislative time before the midterm elections, and the possibility that the House and Senate may still need to reconcile different versions of the bill.

Current prediction markets reflect similar uncertainty. During the latest trading session, Polymarket and Kalshi both priced the legislation below an even chance of becoming law, reflecting continued uncertainty surrounding Senate negotiations rather than broad disagreement over the need for crypto market-structure legislation itself.

Based on the bill’s legislative progress, historical comparisons, Senate voting requirements, and current prediction-market pricing, a reasonable estimate places the probability of the CLARITY Act—or substantially similar market-structure legislation—becoming law during this Congress at approximately 45%, with a reasonable forecast range of 35% to 55%.

A successful bipartisan Senate agreement would likely move those odds significantly higher, while prolonged delays or renewed political disagreements could quickly push market expectations lower.

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