Bitwise Funds Trust has delayed the effective date of its proposed Bitcoin $100,000 prediction funds again, moving the date from October 10 to November 8, 2026.
The October 9 SEC filing covers two Bitcoin products: PredictionShares Bitcoin Will Surpass $100K in 2026 and PredictionShares Bitcoin Will Not Surpass $100K in 2026. The filing says its sole purpose is to delay the effective date of the previously filed amendment until November 8.
The New Effective Date Is November 8
Bitwise had previously designated October 10 as the effective date. The new filing pushes that date back by 29 days.
That leaves only about 54 days between the new effective date and January 1, 2027, when the underlying 2026 event window expires. The shorter runway makes the eventual product unusually time-sensitive compared with a conventional long-lived ETF.
The delay should not be described as an SEC rejection. The filing itself says Bitwise is designating a new effective date for its prior post-effective amendment. It does not say the products were denied.
These Are Binary Prediction Funds
The products are very different from the 3x Bitcoin ETF listing rule BitcoinVersus covered earlier today, and they are also different from ordinary spot Bitcoin ETFs.
Bitwise’s May prospectus says the funds seek exposure through CFTC-regulated event contracts. Those contracts generally settle at $1 if the specified event occurs and $0 if it does not.
For the “Surpass $100K” fund, substantially all economic exposure is intended to come from event contracts that pay out if Bitcoin reaches or exceeds $100,000 at any point during calendar year 2026. The opposite fund is designed around the event not occurring.
One Fund Can Lose Nearly Everything
The prospectus is unusually direct about the risk. If Bitcoin never reaches $100,000 during 2026, the “Surpass” fund can lose substantially all of its value. If Bitcoin does reach $100,000, the “Will Not Surpass” fund can lose substantially all of its value.
This is not simply a fund that rises and falls gradually with Bitcoin. The contracts are binary by design. Once the market considers the outcome effectively known, the contract value can converge rapidly toward either $1 or $0.
The CME Bitcoin Index Decides the Threshold
The prospectus says the contracts use the CME CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index and a trimmed-mean methodology to determine whether Bitcoin has crossed the $100,000 threshold.
That matters because the product does not simply rely on whatever price appears on one exchange or one app. The designated contract market’s rules govern settlement, including how the reference value is calculated and whether the $100,000 event has officially occurred.
The contracts can settle before year-end if the threshold is reached, or at the expiration time on January 1, 2027 if it is not.
The Product Turns a Price Forecast Into a Fund
The interesting part is the wrapper. Prediction markets already allow traders to express yes-or-no views on future events. Bitwise is attempting to package that type of binary Bitcoin exposure into a registered fund structure.
That would push regulated Bitcoin investment products another step beyond the spot ETF frameworks expanding internationally. Instead of simply owning Bitcoin exposure, the investor is effectively taking a position on whether one specific event happens before one specific deadline.
Watch Bitwise Explain Its 2026 Bitcoin Outlook
Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan has argued that Bitcoin’s market structure is changing and has discussed why the firm expected meaningful upside into 2026. The interview below provides useful context for the firm’s broader Bitcoin outlook.
What Comes Next
The next date to watch is November 8. If the registration becomes effective then, the funds would enter their final stretch with less than two months left in the 2026 event window.
That timing is what makes today’s filing notable. Bitwise is not merely delaying another generic Bitcoin fund. It is delaying a product whose entire value proposition depends on whether Bitcoin crosses one price threshold before the calendar runs out.
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