Bitcoin mining has already crossed the petahash-per-machine line. BITMAIN’s U3S23H is rated at 1.16 PH/s, 11,020 W and 9.5 J/TH. From that 2026 baseline, a 10 PH/s miner needs roughly an 8.62× increase in per-machine hashrate.
BitcoinVersus.Tech modeled five compound-growth cases using the same general approach developed in our earlier ASIC hashrate projections. The equation is H(t) = 1.16(1 + g)t, where g is annual hashrate growth.
| Scenario | 10 PH/s |
|---|---|
| 233.6%/yr historical hydro case | 2027.8 |
| 100%/yr annual doubling | 2029.1 |
| 75%/yr | 2029.8 |
| 50%/yr | 2031.3 |
| 35.7%/yr mature-growth case | 2033.1 |
The fastest line is an upper historical extrapolation, not a forecast. A sustained 233.6% annual rate would push one machine past 10 PH/s before 2028, but long-run semiconductor, power-density and cooling limits make that difficult to assume. Hashrate Index has likewise described specialized cooling and data-center compatibility as increasingly important constraints as miner power density rises.
The more useful range is roughly 2029–2033. A yearly doubling reaches the target around 2029; a mature 35.7% path pushes it to 2033. That range also fits the broader questions behind our future-hashrate model and Bitcoin Mining Singularity: raw hashrate can keep rising even as efficiency gains become harder.
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