A single Bitcoin miner has already crossed 1 PH/s. The next question is how long it could take to reach 10 PH/s from one machine.
BitcoinVersus.Tech’s updated comparison starts with Bitmain’s U3S23H at 1.16 PH/s. BITMAIN’s current shop lists the machine at 1,160 TH/s, 11,020 W and 9.5 J/TH. That makes it a useful real-world baseline for updating our earlier ASIC hashrate projections.
The model uses H(t) = 1.16 × (1 + g)t, where g is annual per-machine hashrate growth. The 101.6% line comes from the recent 3U progression documented by Firsthand: roughly 512 TH/s to 1,160 TH/s between November 2024 and January 2026, annualized across that interval.
| Scenario | Estimated 10 PH/s crossing |
|---|---|
| 233.6%/yr historical hydro | Late 2027 |
| 101.6%/yr recent 3U pace | Early 2029 |
| 75%/yr | Late 2029 |
| 50%/yr | Mid-2031 |
| 35.7%/yr mature-growth case | Early 2033 |
The strongest historical hydro-growth case reaches 10 PH/s surprisingly fast, but it is also the least likely to remain sustainable for many generations. Large percentage gains become harder to repeat as the starting base rises. The more defensible near-term comparison is the recent 3U pace, which points to roughly 2029 if similar improvement continues.
There is also a power-density problem. At today’s 9.5 J/TH, a 10 PH/s machine would require roughly 95 kW. At 5 J/TH it would require about 50 kW. At the proposed 1 J/TH Bitcoin Mining Singularity, the same 10 PH/s would require only about 10 kW. That means the race to 10 PH/s is not just about adding more chips. It depends on efficiency, cooling, packaging and what the industry ultimately defines as one “machine.”
The current U3S23H also appears in our October 2026 miner comparison, reinforcing how quickly petahash-scale chassis have moved from projection to commercial hardware.
Bottom line: 10 PH/s per machine looks plausible around 2029 if recent 3U-class improvement continues, but a slower maturation path could push the milestone into 2031–2033. This is a BitcoinVersus.Tech projection, not a manufacturer roadmap.
BitcoinVersus.Tech Editor’s Note:
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