How quickly Bitcoin mining reaches 1 joule per terahash depends less on one machine than on how long efficiency improvements can continue. BitcoinVersus.Tech’s Bitcoin Mining Singularity uses 1 J/TH as a proposed engineering milestone, not a guaranteed date.
The newest reference point is Bitmain’s S23 XP Hyd., rated at 600 TH/s, 5,340 W and 8.9 J/TH. In the site’s 8.3% scenario update, the move from 9.5 to 8.9 J/TH over roughly nine months was annualized to about 8.3% for comparison with longer-run scenarios.
| Annual efficiency improvement | Starting point | Projected 1 J/TH year |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 9.5 J/TH in 2025 | ~2069 |
| 8.3% | 8.9 J/TH in 2026 | ~2051 |
| 10% | 9.5 J/TH in 2025 | ~2046 |
| 15% | 9.5 J/TH in 2025 | ~2039 |
| 20% | 9.5 J/TH in 2025 | ~2035 |
| 25% | 9.5 J/TH in 2025 | ~2033 |
| 30% | 9.5 J/TH in 2025 | ~2031 |
The comparison shows why the assumed rate matters so much. At 30% annual improvement, 1 J/TH arrives in the early 2030s. At 15%, it moves near 2039. At the newer 8.3% annualized scenario, the milestone shifts to roughly 2051—outside the current 2025–2046 chart window.
BITMAIN’s current specification lists the S23 XP Hyd. at 8.9 J/TH. Separately, Blockware has argued that marginal ASIC-efficiency gains are diminishing, which is consistent with testing slower long-run curves rather than assuming earlier gains continue indefinitely.
That does not prove the 8.3% path will persist. New transistor architectures, packaging, cooling, power delivery or entirely new computing methods could steepen the curve again. The purpose of Power Efficiency Theory is to keep those assumptions explicit and measurable as hardware changes.
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