U.S. electricity consumption is projected to reach 4,306 billion kilowatt-hours (kWh) in 2026 and 4,371 billion kWh in 2027, up from 4,216 billion kWh in 2025, according to the Energy Information Administration’s November 10 Short-Term Energy Outlook. The 2027 figure equals approximately 4.37 trillion kWh of annual electricity use.
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 forecast | 2027 forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. electricity consumption (billion kWh) | 4,216 | 4,306 | 4,371 |
| Year-over-year consumption growth | — | +2.1% | +1.5% |
| Total U.S. electricity generation (billion kWh) | 4,425 | 4,539 | 4,595 |
Demand grows by about 90 billion kWh in 2026 and another 65 billion kWh in 2027—a combined 155 billion kWh, or approximately 3.7%, over the 2025 baseline. The figures are annual energy quantities, not instantaneous power demand in gigawatts.
Projected U.S. Electricity Generation by Source
Natural gas remains the dominant source of utility-scale electricity, but solar and wind claim a larger share of the national generation mix. EIA’s November 10 release projects the following annual shares:
| Energy source | 2025 | 2026 forecast | 2027 forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Natural gas | 40% | 40% | 39% |
| Nuclear | 18% | 18% | 18% |
| Coal | 17% | 15% | 15% |
| Wind | 11% | 11% | 12% |
| Solar | 7% | 8% | 10% |
| Conventional hydropower | 6% | 6% | 6% |
| Other sources | 1% | 1% | 1% |
Solar, wind and conventional hydropower together account for a projected 28% of electricity generation in 2027, compared with 24% in 2025. Coal’s share falls two percentage points, while nuclear holds at 18% and natural gas eases one point to 39%.
Solar Adds Capacity Faster Than Other Major Sources
The EIA forecasts U.S. solar generating capacity rising from 152 gigawatts at the end of 2025 to 183 GW in 2026 and 223 GW in 2027. That is 71 GW of additional capacity across two years, a 47% increase over 2025. Wind capacity is expected to rise from 159 GW to 179 GW over the same period.
Installed capacity is not annual electricity delivered: output depends on sunlight, wind conditions, equipment availability and grid access. BitcoinVersus.Tech previously documented solar’s four-month generation lead over wind and the transmission delays that can slow new solar projects.
Commercial Demand Drives the Next Increase
Commercial-sector electricity sales, a category containing many data centers, are forecast to rise from 1,503 billion kWh in 2025 to 1,557 billion kWh in 2026 and 1,600 billion kWh in 2027. Industrial sales rise from 1,050 billion to 1,086 billion kWh over the same span, while residential sales are projected to decline slightly from 2026 to 2027 as EIA assumes milder summer weather.
AI infrastructure is an important contributor, but commercial electricity totals also include offices, stores, healthcare and other nonresidential customers. The report does not assign every additional commercial kilowatt-hour to AI. For comparison, an Allianz-based estimate examined by BitcoinVersus.Tech addresses data centers’ possible share of future demand growth using a different methodology and horizon.
Generation Is Not the Same as Consumption
EIA forecasts 4,539 billion kWh of total utility-scale electricity generation in 2026 and 4,595 billion kWh in 2027. Within those totals, generation from the electric power sector alone is projected at 4,387 and 4,438 billion kWh, respectively. Different sector boundaries, grid losses, imports and behind-the-meter solar prevent a simple one-for-one comparison with final consumption.
The November demand projection also updates October’s earlier EIA-based coverage, which reported 4,288 billion kWh for 2026 and 4,356 billion kWh for 2027. The November forecast is higher by 18 billion and 15 billion kWh, respectively.
What the Forecast Means
For utilities, growing annual electricity use means more generation, transmission, transformers and distribution capacity—not merely higher installed megawatts on paper. For hyperscalers and Bitcoin miners, both power availability and delivered cost remain crucial. The forecast is conditional on EIA’s modeling assumptions as of November 5; weather, project delays, new customer connections and economic conditions may shift subsequent estimates.
Primary sources: EIA electricity outlook; November 2026 STEO, Table 7a; November 10 press release and generation shares.
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